Congressional races round 2: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware

Here’s part three of the second round of congressional races.  Earlier parts are here

Colorado has 7 representatives: 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans.  Filing deadline May 29, primary August 12

Connecticut has 5 representative, 4 Democrats and 1 Republican.  Filing deadline May 3, primary August 12

Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican.  Filing deadline July 25, primary Sept 9

District: CO-01

Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern

Representative Diana DeGette (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)

2004 margin 73-25

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent had money.  DeGette has won easily since her first race

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CO-02

Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies.  Also the exurbs of Denver

Representative Mark Udall (D) retiring (to run for

Senate)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 68-28

2004 margin 67-30

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised more than $15,000

Current opponents There are three declared Democrats, and no Republicans (although some are considering it).  The declared:

1. Joan Fitz-Gerald

2. Will Shafroth

3. Jared Polis

All three look good, but, from their websites, Joan Fitz-Gerald looks the most progressive (to me).

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment This district is increasingly Democratic (Udall’s margin increased each time; Bush got less in 2004 than 2000) and with three good Democrats, it should stay blue

District: CO-03

Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen

Representative John Salazar (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Notes on opponents Walcher, in 2004, raised $1.5 million, about the same as Salazar.  In 2006, Tipton raised almost a million, Salazar more than $2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe.  It’d be nice to have a more progressive rep, but Salazar is better than McInnis was.

District: CO-04

Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver

Representative Marilyn Musgrave (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 46-43 (remainder Reform)

2004 margin 51-45

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents Angie Paccione, in 2006, raised almost $2 million to Musgrave’s $3.2 million;

Current opponents Betsey Markey

Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment Musgrave was labeled “one of the most corrupt members of congress by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.  Not a lot of Republicans could lose in this district, but Musgrave is one of them

District: CO-05

Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs

Representative Doug Lamborn (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents Fawcett raised $600K to Lamborn’s $900K

Current opponents No declared Democrats, but there’s several Republicans going after Lamborn.

Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.

Assessment A long shot

District: CO-06

Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver

Representative Tom Tancredo (R)*retiring*

First elected  1998

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Each recent opponent raised almost a million

Current opponents Mike Collins

Demographics One of the wealthiest districts (median income = $73K, 6th place, and fewest people in poverty of any district (2.7%)

Assessment No Republicans have declared, but this is a solidly Republican district.  

District: CO-07

Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward

Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-42

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2006, Perlmutter and his opponent (Rick O’Donnell) raised almost $3 million each

Current opponents none declared

Demographics Not unusual in what I track

Assessment Of the Democrats in CO, this is probably the  least safe, but the Republicans don’t even have a declared candidate

District: CT-01

Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle

Representative John Larson (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Notes on opponents Neither recent opponent raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on things I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-02

Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London

Representative Joe Courtney (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 83 votes

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004  44-54

Notes on opponents In 2006, Courtney knocked off Rob Simmons. Courtney had $2.5 million, Simmons over $3 million

Current opponents Sean Sullivan

Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)

Assessment Having beaten an incumbent, Courtney should have an easier time now, but this district is far from safe.

District: CT-03

Location New Haven and areas around it

Representative Rosa DeLauro

First elected  1990

2006 margin 76-22

2004 margin 72-25

Bush margin 2004 42-56

Notes on opponents neither recent opponent raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-04

Location NYC suburbs – Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound

Representative Christopher Shays (R)

First elected  1987

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents In the 2006 race, Dianne Farrell raised almost $3 million, Shays, almost $4 million

Current opponents Jim Himes a former investment banker who then ran non-profits; others are considering it

Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)

Assessment Shays has been close… will this be the year? Likely to be very close again

District: CT-05

Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden

Representative Chris Murphy (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-44

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Murphy beat Nancy Johnson, the incumbent.  She raised $5 million (not a typo) he raised $2.5 million.

Current opponents David Capiello

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Not quite safe, but probably OK; comments on dailyKos indicate that Capiello has no funds and not much chance

District: DE-AL

Location Delaware.  

Representative Mike Castle (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Notes on opponents Spivack, in 2006, raised $300K to Castle’s $1.1 million

Current opponents

1. Jerry Northington who blogs on daily Kos as possum.

2. Karen Hartley-Nagle

3. Chris Bullock

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Castle used to win more easily, and he’s getting older, and has been ill, and Delaware is more and more Democratic…. we have a shot!